Dangote Refinery recently began operations with a capacity to process 650,000 barrels of crude oil daily, which has led to anticipation that it may reduce petrol prices in Nigeria. However, industry experts caution that a substantial price drop is unlikely in the short term. The refinery’s pricing will still be influenced by global crude oil costs, exchange rates, and production expenses. Although local production could help stabilize supply and minimize the transportation and insurance costs typically associated with imports, these savings are relatively minor compared to the crude price and refining costs.

This means that while Nigerians may benefit from more consistent fuel availability, any major reduction in petrol costs would require lower crude prices or government intervention, neither of which is currently expected. The refinery’s role will be crucial for job creation and could ease long-standing fuel shortages, improving stability in the Nigerian market, though fuel affordability may not improve as drastically as some anticipate.