Bulgaria Population According to Ethnic Group: Key Demographic Shifts and Trends

Population of Bulgaria according to ethnic group 2011–2021 shows notable demographic changes, ethnic proportions, and census reporting trends over a decade.

The population of Bulgaria according to ethnic group reflects important demographic shifts shaped by migration, declining birth rates, emigration, and changes in census methodology. Using official census data from 2011 and 2021, this explores how Bulgaria’s ethnic composition has evolved over the decade, highlighting population decreases, proportional changes, and the impact of undeclared or administratively sourced data.

Understanding these trends is essential for policymakers, researchers, and anyone interested in Bulgaria’s social structure and future development.

Census Methodology (2011 vs. 2021)

Census Participation and Data Collection

  • 2011 Census: Primarily relied on self-declared ethnicity.
  • 2021 Census: Combined self-declared responses with administrative data sources, leading to a significant category of people without declared ethnicity.

Ethnicity Declaration Differences

Percentages shown outside parentheses are based on the total population, while percentages inside parentheses reflect only those who answered the ethnicity question:

  • 2011 respondents: 6,680,980
  • 2021 respondents: 6,052,111

This distinction is crucial when comparing ethnic proportions.

Total Population Change (2011–2021)

Census YearTotal Population
20117,364,570
20216,519,789

Bulgaria lost over 844,000 people in ten years, confirming a long-term trend of population decline driven by low fertility, emigration, and aging.

Ethnic Bulgarians: Absolute Decline, Relative Stability

Population Numbers

  • 2011: 5,664,624 (76.92%)
  • 2021: 5,118,494 (78.51%)

Despite losing over 546,000 people, ethnic Bulgarians increased their relative share of the population.

Among Declared Ethnicities

  • 2011: 85.47%
  • 2021: 85.70%

This stability suggests that population decline affected most ethnic groups proportionally.

Turkish Ethnic Group: Gradual Decline

Population Change

  • 2011: 588,318 (7.99%)
  • 2021: 508,378 (7.80%)

The Turkish community declined by nearly 80,000 people, but its percentage remained relatively stable.

Declared Responses

  • 2011: 8.88%
  • 2021: 8.51%

This slight decrease may be linked to emigration and lower census participation.

Roma Population: Decrease in Census Numbers

Population Figures

  • 2011: 325,343 (4.42%)
  • 2021: 266,720 (4.09%)

Although demographic studies often suggest higher birth rates among Roma communities, census data shows a decline of nearly 59,000 people.

Declared Ethnicity Share

  • 2011: 4.91%
  • 2021: 4.47%

This reduction may reflect underreporting rather than an actual population drop.

Smaller Ethnic Communities: Mixed Trends

Growing Groups

  • Russians: Increased from 9,978 to 14,218
  • Ukrainians: Increased from 1,789 to 3,239

These increases are likely influenced by recent migration patterns.

Declining Groups

  • Armenians: From 6,552 to 5,306
  • Vlachs: From 3,684 to 1,643
  • Sarakatsani: From 2,556 to 2,071

Ethnic Groups with Stable Numbers

Several groups showed minimal change:

  • Greeks
  • Jews
  • Macedonians
  • Romanians

Their populations remained small but relatively consistent across both censuses.

Tatars and Gagauzes

  • Tatars: Recorded only in 2021 with 1,129 people
  • Gagauzes: Registered only in 2011 with 40 people

These fluctuations may result from changes in classification or self-identification.

“Others” Category Expansion

Population Growth

  • 2011: 19,659 (0.27%)
  • 2021: 46,796 (0.62%)

This category includes groups such as:

  • 2,894 English
  • 865 Italians
  • 824 Poles

The increase reflects rising diversity due to EU mobility and foreign residence.

Undeclared Ethnicity: A Major Shift

Census Comparison

  • 2011: 736,981 (10.00%)
  • 2021: 79,513 (1.22%)

The sharp decrease is misleading without context.

Administrative Data in 2021

In 2021, 467,678 people (7.1%) had ethnicity inferred from administrative sources rather than self-declared.

This methodological change explains:

  • Lower undeclared figures
  • Higher apparent percentages for major ethnic groups

Key Takeaways from the Population of Bulgaria According to Ethnic Group 2011–2021

  • Bulgaria experienced a significant population decline
  • Ethnic proportions remained relatively stable
  • Census methodology strongly influenced results
  • Migration impacted smaller ethnic groups
  • Administrative data altered ethnic reporting patterns

1. Why did Bulgaria’s population decline between 2011 and 2021?

Low birth rates, emigration, and population aging are the main causes.

2. Did the ethnic Bulgarian population increase or decrease?

It decreased in absolute numbers but increased proportionally.

3. Why did undeclared ethnicity drop sharply in 2021?

Because many records were filled using administrative data instead of self-declaration.

4. Are Roma population numbers accurate?

They may be underreported due to census participation challenges.

5. Why did Russian and Ukrainian populations increase?

Migration trends and geopolitical factors likely contributed.

6. Can the two censuses be compared directly?

Only with caution, due to differences in data collection methods.

Bulgaria Population According to Ethnic Group: Key Demographic Shifts and Trends

The population of Bulgaria according to ethnic group reveals a country facing demographic contraction while maintaining relative ethnic stability. However, methodological changes in the 2021 census mean that raw comparisons must be interpreted carefully. As Bulgaria continues to evolve socially and economically, future censuses will play a vital role in understanding its demographic reality.

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