Afghanistan’s climate is highly diverse and strongly influenced by its complex topography. The country encompasses high mountain ranges (such as the Hindu Kush and Pamirs), plateaus, and low-lying basins. This leads to large spatial and seasonal variation in temperature, precipitation, and climate-change impacts. Below is a detailed, up-to-date summary of Afghanistan’s climate, recent trends, and the key risks facing the country as it confronts climate change.
1. Climatic Zones and Baseline Conditions
Temperature Regimes
Afghanistan experiences a continental climate in many regions: cold winters and hot summers, with strong diurnal and seasonal temperature swings.
In winter (January), mean temperatures in cold interior mountain zones may drop well below freezing, while in summer (July) many lowland areas exceed 30 °C or more.
In Kabul, for example, January average is about 1.5 °C, while July averages can reach ~26.8 °C, and peak summer temperatures can exceed 40 °C.
In Kandahar (a lower-altitude southern region), the annual average temperature is ~20.1 °C, with very hot summers.
In Panjab (in the high-altitude Bamyan region), the climate is humid continental (or close to subarctic), with a January average of –8.7 °C and July average ~15.7 °C.
On the national scale, over the period 1901–2023, Afghanistan’s average temperature has hovered around 12.7 °C.
Recent extremes are notable: in January 2023, a devastating cold snap saw temperatures drop as low as –33 °C in high mountain areas, resulting in hundreds of human and livestock fatalities.
Precipitation Patterns
Annual precipitation is highly variable spatially, depending largely on elevation, exposure to prevailing wind systems, and rain shadows.
Low-lying southwestern and western regions may receive less than 150 mm of precipitation annually.
In contrast, some high-elevation areas in the northeast receive over 1,000 mm annually.
National averages often cited are in the range of ~250–320 mm/year, though these are rough and can mask extreme variation.
In Kabul, precipitation is modest (~300 mm/year), mostly concentrated in the late winter to spring months; summer is very dry.
Precipitation in Afghanistan shows pronounced seasonality: most falls from December through April, with very little during the summer months in many regions.
Afghanistan lies largely outside the Indian monsoon influence, except in eastern provinces such as Nuristan, which occasionally receive summer monsoon rainfall.
2. Recent Trends & Observed Changes (Last Few Decades)
Warming and Temperature Shifts
Afghanistan has warmed more than many other regions. Since about 1950, observed temperature increases of ~1.8 °C have been reported.
The increase tends to be more pronounced in minimum (nighttime) temperatures than in maxima, reducing diurnal temperature range in many places.
In 2023, Afghanistan recorded one of its highest average national temperatures (~14.61 °C), a new record for the country.
Changes in Precipitation and Drought
Some river basins, like that of the Kunduz River, have experienced ~30% reductions in precipitation relative to past decades.
Severe drought conditions now affect 25 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces, impacting more than half the population.
The country is currently enduring its worst drought in about 30 years, with reported rainfall amounts less than half of average in some regions.
Because of warming, evaporation rates have increased, placing greater stress on soils, water bodies, and vegetation.
Cryosphere (Glaciers, Snow, and Runoff) Impact
Between 1990 and 2015, Afghanistan lost nearly 14% of its glacier coverage.
Projections for the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region indicate that by 2100, up to 60% of glacier mass in some parts could be lost under continued warming.
Declining glaciers and snowmelt reduce late-season runoff, which many downstream communities rely on.
The risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) is increasing, especially in mountainous valleys with newly formed glacial lakes.
Extreme Events & Variability
Patterns of intense rainfall over short durations have become more frequent, aggravating flooding and landslides risks.
In 2023, a cold snap killed at least 160 people and 77,000 livestock in mountainous regions.
Recently (2025), heavy precipitation and sudden snowfalls have caused fatalities and infrastructure damage in multiple provinces.
The Climate Prediction Center’s short-term outlooks (monthly/seasonal) often note temperature anomalies (±1–4 °C) and forecast regions of enhanced or suppressed precipitation.
3. Projected Future Climate Scenarios
Temperature Projections
According to climate-change modeling, Afghanistan’s warming is expected to exceed the global average.
Under high-emissions scenarios, many parts of the country could see an additional 2–4 °C increase in mean temperature by mid- to late 21st century.
Increases in minimum temperatures (nighttime warming) may be particularly steep, which can affect snow retention, soil moisture, and ecological stress.
Precipitation & Hydrology
Projections of precipitation changes are more uncertain, but many models suggest less winter precipitation in some basins, and increased variability (heavier rainfall in some episodes, longer dry spells).
Shifts in snow/rain partitioning: more precipitation may fall as rain rather than snow in mid-elevations, reducing snowpack and altering timing of runoff.
Glacial retreat will further hamper long-term water yield from high-elevation zones, affecting downstream water availability.
Impacts on Water Availability
Many groundwater aquifers, particularly around urban centers (e.g. Kabul), are being over-exploited. The recharge is not keeping pace with abstraction, especially under declining precipitation and glacier melt.
In fact, reports warn that Kabul could run out of water by 2030 if current trends continue.
4. Impacts Across Sectors & Vulnerabilities
Agriculture, Food Security & Livelihoods
Droughts and inconsistent rainfall severely affect crop yields, especially in rainfed farming zones.
As of 2025, over 10 million people in Afghanistan face acute food insecurity, worsened in part by climate shocks.
Child malnutrition is rising rapidly; one in three children is stunted, in part from climate-driven agricultural losses.
Water Security & Access
Many rural and urban areas already depend on shallow wells, boreholes, and small reservoirs, which are under stress.
The overuse of groundwater in cities, combined with declining recharge, undermines long-term supply sustainability.
Human Displacement & Migration
Climate stress is a major factor in internal displacement, especially when drought destroys livelihoods or floods damage infrastructure.
By 2050, climate-driven displacement estimates suggest up to 5 million additional internally displaced persons.
Natural Hazards
More frequent and intense floods, landslides, and glacial lake outbursts pose risks to communities in mountainous zones.
Cold extremes, such as sudden cold snaps, continue to cause loss of life and livestock in high-altitude regions.
Health & Livelihood Stress
Heat stress, water scarcity, crop failures, and malnutrition interact to raise public health risks, especially among vulnerable populations.
In conflict-affected areas, climate pressures combine with socioeconomic fragility, compounding vulnerability.
5. Challenges to Adaptation & Resilience
Institutional Constraints: Weak governance, political instability, and limited capacity impede planning, coordination, and investment in climate adaptation.
Resource Limitations: Financial, technological, and human resources are scarce, especially under current international sanctions and aid constraints.
Data Gaps: Observational networks (weather stations, stream gauges, glacial monitoring) are sparse in remote and mountainous areas, making high-resolution projections and early-warning systems difficult.
Infrastructure Vulnerabilities: Many roads, irrigation systems, and water storage facilities are fragile and poorly maintained, reducing their resilience to floods or droughts.
Social Equity Issues: Women, children, internally displaced persons, and marginalized communities are disproportionately affected by climate impacts, but may lack voice or access to resources.
Afghanistan Climate
6. Outlook & Key Takeaways
Afghanistan’s climate is already shifting: warming, intensifying droughts, increasing variability, and retreating glaciers are no longer distant prospects but ongoing realities.
The intersection of climate stress with political, economic, and social fragility makes the country exceptionally vulnerable.
Without significant investment in climate adaptation—ranging from water management and drought-resistant agriculture to early warning systems and infrastructure resilience—many Afghan communities face deepening hardship.
Mitigation (i.e. reducing emissions) is less relevant in the Afghanistan context because the country’s emissions are very low globally. The priority is adaptive resilience, humanitarian preparedness, and sustainable development strategies.
